WEC 45 Preview

Joseph Benavidez vs. Rani Yahya

The Breakdown: Benavidez, the Urijah Faber protégé, was supposed to be next in line for the bantamweight crown, but after losing his undefeated record and easy path to the title to Dominick Cruz at WEC 42, he now has to start over against a Brazilian jiu-jitsu demigod. Hardly an ideal start since Benavidez will have to walk on eggshells to keep his limbs and airways intact.

Handicapping any fight involving Yahya has proven more challenging than getting through “Ulysses” because of the Brazilian’s virtually non-existent takedowns and striking. Yahya tries to cover up those flaws by rushing forward, grabbing hold of something and forcing his opponent to defend submissions before the action even hits the mat. It may not be a bad strategic gambit, but Benavidez has shown himself to be an athletic striker who can deliver blows from unorthodox angles and use his physical explosiveness to make up for the obvious lack of technical sheen on his strikes. It goes without saying that Benavidez will be the superior wrestler, although that might not be a significant advantage considering that Yahya remains one of the few grapplers in the sport who knows how to effectively pull guard.

That unique skill and Yahya’s ability to generate scrambles with it makes this bout dangerous for Benavidez, who does not have the jab to dictate distance or the footwork to render Yahya’s bull rush useless. Staying upright is likely the only way Benavidez can win this fight, and making that happen seems like a jigsaw puzzle of pain for the would-be featherweight upstart.

The X-Factor: One cannot overstate just how clueless Yahya looks standing, and his chin has not proven sturdy enough to absorb the shots that inevitably find his chin. Benavidez may not be Tony Jaa, but he does not need to be to put fist to Yahya’s face.

However, Benavidez remains an instinctual fighter who does some of his best work in scrambles, probably the last place in the universe he wants to be with Yahya. Even Faber had to show some fight IQ to reach the next level of the game, and Benavidez will need to do the same.

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The Bottom Line: Picking Yahya remains a gamble, but Benavidez just does not possess the tactical acumen to nullify his jiu-jitsu. Bank on Yahya quickly closing the gap by attacking the lead leg with a kneebar before transitioning to a brain-blanking brabo choke in mid-scramble.