UFC 94 Breakdown: The Main Card

Nathan Diaz vs. Clay Guida

Nate Diaz Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6-foot/155 lbs.
Age: 23
Hometown: Stockton, Calif.
Fighting out of: Stockton, Calif.
Record: 10-2

The stakes: If there’s an ironclad rule in sports, it’s that the younger brother is always the least talented. Take a look at Ozzie Canseco and Dan McGwire. That’s what makes Diaz’s sudden rise all the more unlikely. After years spent in the shadow of his completely unhinged brother, Nick, the spotlight now shines on the younger Diaz, who has a slightly stronger hold on reality. A win over the always rough-and-tumble Guida may be all he needs to make a title shot part of that reality.

The breakdown: Above all, Diaz can take a beating and keep his bearings long enough to snatch hold of a submission. Think of him as the nouveau Nogueira. He’ll need that reserve of intestinal fortitude to survive the relentless ground-and-pound of MMA’s resident Geico caveman. As long as Diaz establishes his underrated striking early and forces Guida to gamble on the ground, he’ll have plenty of time to show Guida what the infamous 209 area code thinks of subpar submission defense.

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5-foot-7/155 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Roundlake, Ill.
Fighting out of: Tinley Park, Ill.
Record: 24-9

The stakes: After a heartbreaking loss to Roger Huerta, Guida’s rise to the top of the lightweight heap was suddenly in peril. Thankfully, a workmanlike rebound win over “The Ultimate Fighter” winner Mac Danzig has the stars lined up anew for Guida. Faced with the task of taking down another would-be poster boy, Guida needs to erase the memory of his meltdown against Huerta by securing his spot among the lightweight elite at Diaz’s expense.

The breakdown: The supposed good old days of wrestlers frustrating jiu-jitsu players with unapologetically tedious top control are long gone, and such a strategy would be disastrous against Diaz’s guard. Granted, Guida had success using that strategy against Marcus Aurelio, but Aurelio typically struggles when he cannot secure top position. Against Diaz, Guida should first look to control the tempo on the feet with trench-war tactics before going for takedowns that will land him past Diaz’s guard. Above all, Guida has to keep in mind that any time he spends in Diaz’s guard will be time spent defending submissions.


* * *

The bottom line: Guida’s relentless pace is often enough to break down even the most steadfast of opponents, but against Diaz it just makes for more problems than solutions. While Guida’s certainly competent standing, Diaz can match him there, and should Guida pursue a clinch-centric strategy, Diaz will be more than willing to pull guard. Think of it like the labyrinth scene from “The Shining.” No matter which way Guida turns, Diaz will be there to greet him with a Cheshire cat grin and an axe to the head.