WEC 45 Preview

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Scott Jorgensen

The Breakdown: The lone bantamweight bout to make the main card cut has emerged as an early “Fight of the Night” favorite, as Mizugaki and Jorgensen have no qualms about setting aside their wrestling credentials in favor of some old-fashioned fireworks. This fight hinges on which fighter will have the ability to use his wrestling to change the pace if the striking goes awry.

If that proves true, Jorgensen will be in for a rough night, as Mizugaki wields oil-slick takedown defense and more fundamentally sound striking. Granted, Jorgensen has proven himself as the more physically explosive fighter, but Antonio Banuelos circumvented that disadvantage with superior technique in their bout at WEC 41. Mizugaki shares that advantage with Banuelos, and Jorgensen lacks the skill to overcome it.

Normally, Jorgensen can rely on his wrestling, but Mizugaki has become incredibly difficult to take down, thanks in particular to his slick limp-leg defense on shots and ability to transition into the Greco-Roman clinch, where he can shut down most anyone. The obvious move for Jorgensen would be to use his strikes to set up takedowns since Mizugaki has no interest in working off his back. It seems like a sound strategy on paper, but Jorgensen does not have the tools to execute it, as he seems to lack the confidence to string his strikes and takedowns together smoothly. Switching between wrestling and striking without combining the two effectively will only leave Jorgensen exposed.

The X-Factor: Mizugaki has been out-wrestled before, and his struggles seemed to be rooted in his lack of brute physicality. The technique may be undeniable, but Mizugaki is not a freakishly explosive athlete and seems to falter when his opponent can match his technique and bring that physical edge to the cage.

Jorgensen has the supersonic shot needed to frustrate Mizugaki and the top game to keep him under control. What he lacks is the refined technique to back it up, and without it, this fight looks more and more like a face-stomping for Jorgensen.

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The Bottom Line: Three rounds of getting taken down and beaten to the punch ends with Jorgensen on the wrong side of a unanimous decision. Let us hope his corner has the good sense to keep some industrial strength Enswell on hand.