UFC 95 Breakdown: The Main Card

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

Demian Maia Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/185 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Fighting out of: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Record: 9-0

The breakdown: As the Talking Heads once said, “it’s the same as it ever was” for Maia, who will face another wrestling convert who cannot handle his Lil’ Wayne-level flow on the mat. Maia needs to be mindful of Sonnen’s rugged ground-and-pound since he will almost certainly be working off his back, given the Team Quest veteran’s superior wrestling background. Keeping Sonnen in either full or half guard and working sweeps while occupying him with submission attempts should be all Maia needs to cement his young money credentials.

The X-Factor: Like any jiu-jitsu virtuoso, Maia falters when his game gets stalled by ground-and-pound, and Sonnen has a measured, stultifying style that has rendered black belts useless. Barring a quick three-tap symphony, Maia will have to survive some rough patches. That’s something of a foreign concept to the undefeated golden boy from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Chael Sonnen Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Milwaukie, Ore.
Fighting out of: West Linn, Ore.
Record: 21-9-1

The breakdown: Strategically, Sonnen should use his wrestling in reverse to get Maia out of his comfort zone and force some striking to rough him up before moving to the mat. That’s an obvious strategy that Sonnen has ignored in past bouts with transparently superior grapplers. Granted, Sonnen used a smart approach in his rematch with Paulo Filho, but it remains questionable whether or not Filho knew where he was for most of that fight. It’s no secret that going to the mat with a fresh Maia will get you tapped out. Sonnen will not score any knockouts anytime soon, but he needs to wear out Maia on the feet, especially in the clinch, if he plans on ending the Brazilian’s submission jubilee.

The X-Factor: Think of this fight as Sonnen’s own personal fight IQ test. If he happily obliges the second Maia drops for a leg or pulls guard, just hit your stopwatch and see how long it takes Maia to prove his status as a master pretzel maker yet again. Should Sonnen have the sense to realize that being tied in knots is bad for his health, Maia could fall faster than Joaquin Phoenix’s stock.

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The bottom line: Banking on Sonnen to work the perfect gameplan against Maia is like relying on Nigerian princes who offer their inheritance via e-mail. In other words, keep dreaming. Watch for Sonnen to give Maia some trouble early on, but the Brazilian’s dogged pursuit of the takedown will eventually force Sonnen to the mat. There, it will be like leading a lamb to slaughter.