The Breakdown: With Anderson Silva off mimicking Roy Jones Jr.’s career path, the middleweight division is waiting for someone to step up and challenge the incumbent champion’s unquestioned dominance. Both Miller and Sonnen are likely candidates, but what separates the two is that while Sonnen’s wrestling makes him a tough match for anyone, Miller has the submission game to match his wrestling. Even if Miller can’t work his submissions from top control, he’s versatile enough to give Sonnen fits from inside the guard -- a place where Sonnen is more accident prone than Joe Biden at a news conference.
The X Factor: Typically Sonnen bulls his way to top control and batters his opponents into submission. That game plan goes well when Sonnen isn’t leaving his arms out on an island, but Miller is good enough to force Sonnen into a mistake. By the same token, Miller isn’t used to getting outwrestled and beat on like a cheap drum. This bout likely comes down to who can adapt best to stepping outside of his usual routine.
The Bottom Line: If adaptation decides this fight, you can put the farm on Miller. He is far more versatile and has a very underrated fight IQ. Effective as Sonnen can be from top control, he can’t bank on controlling Miller for 15 minutes. Miller is a solid wrestler in his own right and incredibly active regardless. That constant threat of the submission will end with Sonnen playing the three-tap symphony and Miller announcing his presence as a force in the contender-starved middleweight division.