A competitor from the Oceanic region will be represented in 12 of the 13 bouts at UFC Fight Night 260 on Saturday in Perth, Australia. Nine of the 12 seem likely to close as betting favorites, although a few pick-’ems could be in play, as well. In this Ultimate Fighting Championship installment of Prime Picks, we cherry-pick some desirable options while throwing our collective hands in the air for the headlining contest.
Carlos Ulberg-Dominick Reyes Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)
If one wants an outright underdog moneyline option in Prime Picks, we present the resurgent Reyes (+200) on a silver platter. While his power has never been in question, a number of defensive lapses following the contentious defeat to Jon Jones resulted in the former title challenger falling on hard times. That was not the end of his career—he suffered four straight losses, including three knockouts—as he took some time to get his head right. Since then, knockouts of Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov have announced him as firmly “back” among the top echelon at 205 pounds. Could Ulberg smash him in seconds? Is “The Devastator” going to devastate and send the home crowd home sad? It’s all on the table when these two flamethrowers rev up their fuel packs.
With Ulberg nearing -300, trying to drill down to what would result if he won is too nebulous. Does he knock out the chinny Reyes? Will he need all five rounds to get it there? Additionally, Reyes has not won a fight on the scorecards since 2019, with just one of his seven encounters over that stretch reaching the over suggested above. Even as Ulberg has slowed a bit from being a first-round mayhem machine, a lot of what he dishes out depends on the man across the cage from him. Put him against overly excited blitzers like Alonzo Menifield or Tafon Nchukwi, and he will crush them. The lone loss on the City Kickboxing staple’s resume came in the UFC in the form of a second-round punchout. Reyes could replicate the result, just as easily as Ulberg could knock his block off. When the fists fly and the jaws get jacked, a stoppage is up for grabs and one of them just has to take it. Before they reach 12:30 in battle, the referee should be waving things off, and it doesn’t matter who wins as long as there’s a knockout, submission or disqualification.
Jimmy Crute (-180)
A member of the UFC roster since 2018 the now 29-year-old Crute has grown up a lot in the cage over the years. Despite winning four of his first five with the promotion, “The Brute” has seen his record in its confines fall to .500 and then rise above it thanks to a first-round submission of Marcin Prachnio in July. That lone win removed from a funny stretch of red and yellow on his ledger, Crute appears to be taking a step down in competition by facing Ivan Erslan on the former’s home soil. Erslan is exactly the kind of favorable matchup that should allow him to flourish, and at these odds, don’t pass up on the fighter trained out of Stewie’s House of BJJ.
In two unsuccessful walks to the Octagon, Erslan has shown that he can take a punch. It’s a difficult proposition to suggest his next greatest displayed skill with the UFC thus far, as he could not thwart the wrestling attacks of Ion Cutelaba or Navajo Stirling—both of whom put him on the canvas three times and outlanded him in terms of the raw numbers. Erslan has decent punching power, but he will have to be up and on his feet in order to take advantage of this asset. Count on Crute, who managed to put Michal Oleksiejczuk on the mat eight times in three and a half minutes, to get in Erslan’s grill and never give him a moment to breathe. Whether he’s able to wrap up Erslan in a bow, lay a beating on him that forces referee intervention or simply outwork his opponent for 15 minutes, the path is clear and available for the local athlete to prevail.
Andre Petroski (-175)
With his doggedly aggressive grappling style, chain-wrestling to get to his acquired destination, Petroski has the skill set to frustrate a lot of middleweights in the Octagon. One such foe should be the debuting “Battle Giraffe” Cameron Rowston, who earned that distinction thanks to his rangy 6-foot-3 frame and a 78-inch wingspan to go with it. While the Sydney-based newcomer proved himself by smashing Brandon Holmes in August, what may surprise audiences is his fairly creative submission arsenal that even includes a calf slicer. Even with Rowston being an equal-opportunity finisher, he has not encountered a takedown artist a fraction as accomplished or well-demonstrated on a major stage.
What has gotten Petroski in trouble in most of his unsuccessful UFC outings is his willingness to get in the pocket and throw leather to let the chips fall where they may. Michel Pereira decided he was not paid by the hour and dispatched the veteran of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 66 seconds, and the Aussie does celebrate a number of quick stoppages on his ledger. It might take an adrenaline dump from an all-out blitz for Rowston to punish Petroski, but that’s likely a best-case scenario. Instead, he should be ready to get put on his back, taking his long limbs out of the equation. Torrez Finney grounded him 10 times in their previous meeting, and Petroski can do something similar while also actually attempting a submission or some ground-and-pound.
Michelle Montague Wins Inside Distance (+140)
There was once a time when Professional Fighters League alum Montague was not all about the rear-naked choke. During her fairly lengthy campaign among amateurs—two and a half years is a fairly significant stretch—the tall, rangy New Zealand native would also land armbars, kneebars, guillotines and even some strikes, to boot. While an outright bet on Montague to win by her favored rear-naked choke is not available, the line of her picking up another sub victory is so close to the finish prop bet price that it almost goes without saying. This allows for Montague to get the fight down, wrangling the woman who recently competed two divisions below her, and drum her out with her fists rather than snatching up a neck.
Even though “Dread” is far from a household name, her three-fight winning streak—albeit including a layoff of almost 15 months—and positive UFC record of 6-3 means she is made of sterner stuff than what Montague has largely encountered to date. This is of no disrespect to any of the women “The Wild One” has faced thus far, but they generally have been hovering around the .500 range, while the same cannot be said for most UFC athletes. The size difference, even with Carolina moving up in weight for the first time since her appearance on the Brazilian edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, will be notable, and Montague should have the upper hand any time she gets a grip on the Brazilian. Leaning on the success of the French fighters in France and the Mexican fighters in not-so-Mexico, the Oceanic combatants should keep things going in Perth for locals.