The Ultimate Fighting Championship is scraping the barrel to keep this show inside the UFC Apex afloat this Saturday in Las Vegas, even scuttling together a backup heavyweight headliner that ended up not going anywhere. Betting lines are not particularly conducive to big bucks for this card, and some savvy bettors may steer clear of all but one or two options. In this UFC on ESPN 71 edition of Prime Picks, we pitch an even-money prop bet and toss our hands in the air for a parlay that could sink or swim.
PARLAYING & PRAYING
Tatsuro Taira (-350)
Chris Duncan-Mateusz Rebecki Starts Round 2 (-350)
Karol Rosa-Nora Cornolle Goes the Distance (-500)
Total Odds: -102
It’s clearly not Sweeps Week for the UFC, which ideally should be putting its best foot forward as it courts suitors for its upcoming broadcast contract. Instead, what fight fans get here is an evening of prospects and mulled-over Dana White’s Contender Series signees that would make this lineup more of a “Dana White’s Saturday Contender Series” show than something meriting mainstream attention. As the most-derided events tend to surprise, whether due to exceptionally low expectations or combatants trying to prove something, we look to the main event for one of our best bets—sort of.
Taira, who was previously booked against Amir Albazi, now faces Hyun Sung Park on short notice. The South Korean was matched against Steve Erceg in a week, only to slot in here, so at least he was in camp. Japan’s Taira, aiming to rebound from his first career defeat, goes from grappler to grappler in the opponent round robin. Given his level of competition in comparison to Park’s thus far, Taira is a couple steps ahead of his counterpart and should display that in this assignment.
Teammates Duncan and Rebecki will come to blows in a battle between friends and training partners. When that type of matchup occurs, two outcomes are likely: They go for broke against one another like Travis Browne-Andrei Arlovski, or they blow it like Natan Schulte-Raush Manfio. The latter is expected of the all-American Top Team collision, even if there was a suggestion by Duncan that Rebecki made a mistake by accepting the fight. Five minutes should easily elapse for both men, allowing this play to hit. Finally, Rosa has gone to a decision in 11 straight fights, win or lose. Enough said.
Rodolfo Vieira Wins Inside Distance (+100)
There are few particularly appetizing moneylines on the slate, shy of perhaps a rejuvenated Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-200) who is taking his vitamins and saying his prayers lately. The gains from taking someone like Rinya Nakamura at -415 or Austin Bashi at -750 are negligible and could be suitable for accumulators if bets must be placed. Even the option for Vieira outright is a bit out of the Prime Picks price range, sitting around -210 now. However, drilling down into the way he actually competes, taking even money for a stoppage from “The Black Belt Hunter” seems almost unfair.
This particular line does not solely rely on Vieira tapping Tresean Gore and becoming the first man to do so. Instead, it allows for the option that the Brazilian grounds Gore and decides to hit him until the referee pulls him off. It also accounts for the potential for an injury designated a technical knockout, even if it was caused by a submission that Vieira will almost certainly attempt. It’s a middleweight contest, which means some silliness could occur. Gore does acquit himself well when defending takedowns, partially due to his willingness to snatch up a vice-like guillotine choke. Doing so against an accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard like Vieira might spell his undoing. Vieira could welcome him to try as much so he can drag the fight to the mat and take Gore’s fists out of the equation. Unless Vieira runs out of steam trying to take the fight down, he can wrangle “Mr. Vicious” and double some smart bettors’ money.