3 Reasons Why Terence Crawford Will Beat Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez

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When Terence Crawford enters the ring on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, he will face the most dangerous and decorated opponent of his career. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) is a living legend who has broken champions down with machine-like efficiency. The undisputed super-middleweight champion is expected to dwarf Crawford—a former lightweight—in size and power, but this fight will not be won off physical strength. Crawford’s mental fortitude and mastery of the Sweet Science have catapulted the Omaha, Nebraska native to an unblemished record (41-0, 31 KOs) and titles in four separate weight classes, and he could be adding a fifth very soon.

Crawford is a dog who commands respect from the entire boxing community, and there are plenty of factors at play in why he’s widely regarded as the No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer on the planet. Still, he will be more than happy to remind the doubters in the main event on Netflix (9 p.m. ET). Here are three reasons why Crawford will defeat Alvarez:

Terence Crawford stopping Errol Spence Jr. to become the undisputed welterweight champion. Bud dominates Spence in an all-time great performance, dropping him three times & giving him his first loss. July 29, 2023. pic.twitter.com/e9cFmk45ch

— b0xingfan (@b0xingfan) September 8, 2025

1. The Jab

When Crawford squared off with former WBA, WBC and IBF welterweight champion Errol Spence in July 2023, many believed he had met his match. Spence possessed a relentless gas tank, an Olympic pedigree and was the naturally bigger man, but Crawford dismantled him with ease by taking away his best weapon: the jab. Spence has a powerful, pumping type of jab that comes heavy and consistently, but it lacks diversity. Crawford spent the entire first round picking up on Spence’s timing and range before landing quick counters over the top. When Spence stepped in, Crawford would parry the shot and land a precise left hand on the button. The shot wasn’t heavy or loaded, but Spence’s forward momentum carried him into the punch, making it more effective. The harder Spence fought, the worse the punishment became. Getting hit while throwing not only puts you off-balance but zaps your energy. Alvarez has a powerful jab he utilizes to close off the ring and set up his power shots, but he becomes visibly frustrated when it’s not landing. In fights against Floyd Mayweather Jr., Erislandy Lara, Caleb Plant and Dmitry Bivol, he struggled to pin down the elusive fighters and establish a consistent jab. Without an effective jab, Alvarez’s powerful hooks and uppercuts are easier to see, avoid and counter.

One year ago today Terence Crawford defeated Israil Madrimov via UD12 to win the WBA Super Welterweight Title

'Bud' becomes a 4 division champion pic.twitter.com/Nyxa8gtHyl

— Tokkerū (@ATokkers5) August 3, 2025

2. Point Game

Crawford’s path to victory will likely come via the scorecards. Despite having a 75% finish rating, it’s doubtful that he will be the first fighter to stop or drop the Mexican megastar. Alvarez’s chin has withstood the likes of Gennady Golovkin, Sergey Kovalev, Miguel Cotto and many other powerful punchers, so it’s unlikely the challenger’s power will faze him. Crawford needs to focus on the subtle aspects of the Sweet Science if he wants to pull off the upset. He doesn’t need to tee off on Alvarez to win rounds. He just needs to stay active and keep his back off the ropes. Dmitry Bivol followed this game plan to perfection in his win over Alvarez three years ago.

Bivol really beat the shit out of Canelo and judges tried to say 115-113 😂😭 pic.twitter.com/HE4Tm9EO4L

— Hassan (@Hassanwellss) October 6, 2024

Crawford doesn’t fight like the undisputed light heavyweight champion, but there’s a ton that he can learn from Bivol’s performance. Bivol prioritized straight punches that forced Alvarez to settle in his high guard while staying out of range from his explosive counters. Bivol outlanded and outhrew Alvarez in every round, according to CompuBox (152 to 84). Alvarez’s style is judge-friendly, but Crawford can leave an impression by fighting in flashy spurts. Chaining together combinations while staying defensively responsible is an effective way to build a lead on the scorecards, but will that be enough in the championship rounds?

👀🥊 Terence Crawford TKO's Benavidez in the 12th round to move to 34-0!

(via @espn) pic.twitter.com/LLibOOza2n

— Fanatics View (@fanaticsview) October 14, 2018

3. Bad Intentions

Crawford may be a lot of things, but merciful is not one of them. Despite having the skills to outbox most of his opponents cautiously, he uses his technique as a means to put his foes away in spectacular fashion. From the opening bell to the final second, “Bud” will try to separate his counterpart from consciousness. Some may view this as his potential downfall against the stronger champion, but instead, it will be his greatest weapon. Crawford believes the size disadvantage has been overexaggerated, and he’s confident that he will be able to stand toe-to-toe when the moment calls for it. Crawford and Alvarez know this fight won’t be a stand-and-trade shootout. Both fighters are defensively responsible and respect each other’s ferocity. Still, Crawford is willing to go to a place that the other elusive fighters who have faced Alvarez weren’t willing to go to. Crawford takes chances and dares to be great, and while that could get him caught, it could get him the respect he will need to keep Alvarez at bay. For months, all Crawford has heard is that he’s too small, but he will soon get the opportunity to prove to the world that his heart was always big enough for the moment.