Preview: Noche UFC ‘Lopes vs. Silva’

Middleweights

Kelvin Gastelum (19-10, 1 NC) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7)

Odds: Gastelum (-250); Stoltzfus (+200)

Even more so than fellow “The Ultimate Fighter” alum Brad Tavares, who had a rough night of work at UFC Paris last week, Gastelum passed through the TUF house so young, so early in his career and so long ago that it is shocking to realize how young he is.

Gastelum will make his 25th walk to the UFC on Saturday, a few weeks shy of his 34th birthday. It is a run that has seen him nearly reach the pinnacle of the sport despite some oddly flat performances in the cage, and the perpetual feeling that he is competing in the wrong weight class, assuming there is even a right one for him.

He may be only 33 but it’s an old 33, with the wear and tear of those 25 UFC fights, his pre-Octagon MMA career and high school and junior college wrestling before that. Always starkly undersized for middleweight, Gastelum thrived for years thanks to his underrated athleticism, solid boxing and wrestling, and general gameness and instincts. He remains game, and more athletic than he looks, but most of those gifts are in decline. The biggest losses have been in his aggression and workrate; where he once put bigger fighters on their heels, and was very good at winning close rounds by turning things up at the perfect time, he now struggles to throw enough volume to be effective, and his wrestling has all but dried up.

If the question hovering over Gastelum is “how much does he have left,” with Stoltzfus we’re still trying to figure out how much he has, period. The American by way of Germany is nearly the same age as Gastelum but is a much newer face to the average fan. After joining the UFC out of the Contender Series in 2020, he lost his first three fights, looked unimpressive and would probably have been cut if not for the Covid-driven changes in how the promotion handled marginal talents.

Stoltzfus held onto his roster spot, however, and has vindicated the UFC’s trust by alternating wins and losses ever since. Over the last three years, he has not only shown he belongs in the UFC, but also demonstrated what he is actually good at: a little of everything. He is a good-sized 185-pounder who makes up for a lack of speed with strength, disciplined striking and a wrestling attack that is both persistent and technically sound.

The result has been that Stoltzfus only loses these days to very good fighters, most often ones who are quicker, more dynamic and can take advantage of his deficiencies there. Otherwise, he is a handful, quickly figuring out where he has the advantage over his opponent and then hammering away at it.

Gastelum is a substantial favorite in this fight and frankly, I don’t get it. Stoltzfus may never become a world-beater, but he is a solid, reliable UFC middleweight—maybe the new version of Marc-Andre Barriault, whom he dusted less than a year ago. Meanwhile Gastelum has been soldiering along despite waning physical tools and looking mentally disengaged in about half of his fights. The pick is that Stoltzfus wins all three rounds, maybe even taking Gastelum down and making him defend himself on the ground for long stretches, and picks up an easy unanimous decision.



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Lopes vs. Silva
Font vs. Martinez
Garcia vs. Gordon
Gastelum vs. Stoltzfus
Luna vs. Le
The Prelims