Preview: UFC Perth

Welterweights

Jake Matthews (22-7) vs. Neil Magny (30-13)

Odds: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

The eternal prospect meets the eternal gatekeeper, as Matthews seeks to extend his three-fight win streak and delight the Aussie crowd while Magny looks to prove he still has something to offer the next generation of UFC welterweights.

It only feels like Matthews has been in the UFC since fifth grade, but he was in fact the youngest fighter on roster when he signed a dozen years ago as a 19-year-old. Since then, he has been a study in quiet, consistent improvement. While he has never quite made the leap from prospect to contender, his 12-7 mark in the promotion is more than respectable and he hasn’t lost back-to-back fights since 2016.

Matthews has always been at his best as a grappler, but his striking—previously some of the ugliest in the division—has come a long way. At this point, “The Celtic Kid” is capable of taking care of himself on the feet long enough to find a way to bring most of his opponents to the ground with a shot from outside or a body lock and trip from the clinch. His difficulties usually come when he is faced with big, athletic welterweights who can stop his takedowns or outwrestle him on the ground.

Magny’s long, underrated career seems to be finally nearing its end, but there’s still life there, as he showed in a second-round KO of fellow aging vet Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in August. “The Haitian Sensation” continues his assault on the UFC record books, fueled by his well-rounded skills. He is a solid boxer with good accuracy and volume, though that volume has begun to decline, and has always been a much more effective offensive wrestler than his lanky frame might imply.

Magny’s calling card has always been his durability and intelligence; most of his best wins have seen him weather a storm from more offensively potent foes before taking over late and burying them under an avalanche of punches. Conversely, the jack-of-all-trades has always been susceptible to specialists who could jump on him early, whether on the feet (e.g. Lorenz Larkin, Carlos Prates) or on the ground (e.g. Gilbert Burns, Rafael dos Anjos).

Matthews isn’t quite the predator of a prime dos Anjos or near-prime Burns, but he is a more dangerous ground fighter than Magny, especially at this point in their careers, and he has always known his own best routes to victory. Matthews is the biggest favorite on the card for a reason, even if -475 seems awfully steep, and the pick here is that he struggles early, but eventually cracks Magny’s takedown defense and hauls him down en route to a second-round submission win.



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Matthews vs. Magny
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