Middleweights
Cameron Rowston (12-3) vs. Andre Petroski (13-4)Odds: Petroski (-160); Rowston (+130)
Fresh from his victorious return engagement on Dana White's Contender Series last month, and on a four fight win streak overall, Sydney native Rowston will attempt to keep the momentum going in his UFC debut against Petroski, who needs to show that his miserable performance against Edmen Shahbazyan in June was just a bad night at the office rather than an indication of an overall decline.
Over the last four years, Petroski has distinguished himself as arguably the top product to emerge from Season 29 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” and with castmate Bryan Battle now bolstering the roster of Professional Fighters League, the “arguably” part might be gone. The 34-year-old Renzo Gracie Philly product looks like a bit of a throwback wrestle-boxer and fights like one as well. He is a technically sound striker with decent power, though not quite as much his jacked physique would lead you to expect. His wrestling is similarly technically sound, with good single- and double-leg takedowns that he can chain seamlessly. On the ground, he is deliberate rather than overwhelming but delivers hard strikes and is always a threat to pull off a topside submission like an arm-triangle.
Petroski appeared to be cruising towards the Top 10 before running into Shabazyan, and the loss was concerning because of the specifics. It is understandable that he seemed a step behind the younger, ultra-athletic Californian, especially in the early going, but Petroski reacted poorly to being hit, compared to his earlier UFC fights, win or lose. Worst of all, while Petroski’s gas tank has always been marginal, and while Shahbazyan has come a long way since his early 20s, when he was a frontrunner notorious for fading late in fights, it was not a good look that Shahbazyan was by far the fresher fighter in Round 3. The pressure is on Petroski to dispel those doubts.
Rowston is harder to pin down as a fighter. At his best, he is a solid offensive striker with a couple of bad defensive habits, most notably keeping his head too high and pulling straight back to avoid strikes. His wrestling isn’t pretty but is quite effective, as he finds ways to finish blown entries with his long arms, persistence and good instincts. That feeds his dangerous and diverse arsenal of grappling techniques; while he has a win by calf slicer on his record, he is likely to get his best results at the UFC level as a back control specialist who finishes well with chokes.
At best, that is. However, Rowston, even in victory, can sometimes struggle with less talented foes who seem to have a clearer idea of what they want to do in the fight. And in his first Contender Series appearance last year, those tendencies came to the fore, as he lost to walking middleweight matchup problem Torrez Finney in a lousy fight.
This is a difficult fight to call because Petroski could conceivably look much better than he did in June, or even worse, if he really is starting to fade, while Rowston is younger but much more mercurial. My guess is that it’s a little of Column A and a little of Column B where Petroski is concerned, and that he really is slowing down. However, Finney gave Rowston fits despite the huge size disparity and he did it employing a similar approach to the one Petroski prefers. The pick is that Petroski has enough left in the tank to bank away two rounds here and hold on for a decision win.
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