Preview: UFC Perth Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

Michelle Montague (6-0) vs. Luana Carolina (11-4)

Odds: Montague (-210); Carolina (+180)

Undefeated New Zealander and former Professional Fighters League standout Montague will endeavor to make a big impression in her UFC debut against the suddenly red-hot Carolina in a matchup that, despite being buried early on the prelims, probably has more immediate importance in its division than any other fight at UFC Perth besides the main event.

Carolina seems to have turned a corner, as the Brazilian has strung together three straight wins over the last two years or so. “Dread” arrived in the UFC as a lanky flyweight kickboxer with speed, accuracy, decent but not crushing power—and extremely poor wrestling and defensive grappling. While she clearly remains a striker first, she has come quite a way toward shoring up those deficiencies. That was most obvious in her win over Julija Stoliarenko, where she pelted and eventually overwhelmed exactly the kind of one-dimensional ground specialist who probably would have made short work of Carolina just a year or two earlier.

Montague is a very intriguing get for the UFC. “The Wild One” is limited and a bit raw—to have only six professional fights as she prepares to turn 32 is not ideal—but the things she does well, she does very well. Montague is very big—she fought in PFL as a lightweight, then a featherweight, and would have been an obvious eventual foil for Kayla Harrison—and an overpowering, suffocating grappler. Look no further than her six rear-naked chokes in six career fights, five of them in the first two rounds. While Montague’s striking is a means to an end, she does use her long frame well and has solid power.

This fight would be a terrible style matchup for Carolina under any circumstances, or at least a very stern test of her improving takedown defense and get-up game, but what pushes it over the edge should be the size disparity. Carolina is coming up from 125 pounds, and while she doesn’t give up height or reach to most UFC bantamweight women, she is lean and rangy. Meanwhile, Montague is dropping from 145 pounds, and in the not-too-distant past, 155. She will be the far larger, stronger woman in the cage, and she employs a style where that can be a deciding advantage all on its own.

Assuming Montague is not depleted from the weight cut or excessively rusty from almost a year and a half on the shelf, this is one of the easiest fights at UFC Perth to envision. Carolina is steadily improving, and may end up a contender at 135 even if she loses here, but she will not have the wrestling chops to keep Montague from taking her down, nor the one-shot power to punish her for trying. The pick is for Montague to delight the Aussie crowd and certify herself as an immediate person of interest in her new promotion and division, with a rag-dolling performance on her way to a Round 1 submission win. RNC, of course.



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Stirling vs. Bellato
Lookboonmee vs. Thainara
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Rowston vs. Petroski
Thicknesse vs. Musasa
Mullarkey vs. Bedoya
Montague vs. Carolina
Pericic vs. Ellison