Lightweights
Tom Nolan (9-1) vs. Charlie Campbell (9-2)Odds: Nolan (-160); Campbell (+130)
Streaking Aussie prospect Nolan faces Campbell, who steps in on short notice for Evan Elder, in an intriguing clash of big-bodied lightweight up-and-comers.
Nolan figures to be a matchup problem for UFC 155-pounders for as long as he can make the weight. At 6-foot-2 with broad shoulders and a serious wingspan, “Big Train” rivals Joel Alvarez and Ignacio Bahamondes for the title of “biggest lightweight in the UFC by the eyeball test.” (Notably, those two have both struggled to make weight in the past.)
As a fighter, Nolan is a solid athlete, smooth and coordinated rather than out-and-out explosive, but he clearly understands his physical gifts and works to force opponents into a mid- to long-range kickboxing match where his accuracy and natural power allow him to pile up damage in a hurry. In his UFC debut—his lone career loss to date—he was caught quickly and knocked out by a short, explosive hitter in Nikolas Motta.
That might have indicated a weakness for future foes to exploit, but his three opponents since then, all of whom were strikers by preference and had presumably watched the Motta fight, had far more difficulty getting inside on the towering Nolan. Similarly, his ground game is presumably out there to be tested as a long-legged lightweight who plants his feet to punch, but thus far none of his foes have been able to push the issue.
Campbell is in many ways cut from a similar cloth to Nolan. He is also tall and rangy for the division, and does his best work in the same general range on the feet, though his offbeat style is definitely a different look. Also like Nolan, Campbell’s last loss saw him be clipped early by a shorter, more explosive puncher, but his subsequent foes have struggled to emulate what Chris Duncan did to Campbell on the Contender Series, including Trevor Peek, who would dearly love to have done the same.
The odds here moderately favor Nolan, and so do I. Both fighters are likely to settle down for the kind of measured kickboxing match that both favor, and Nolan, as the bigger and more technically sound of the two, should get the better of things. With his power and Campbell’s relative hittability, the pick here is Nolan by KO in Round 1 or early Round 2.
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Ulberg vs. Reyes
Jenkins vs. Taveras
Crute vs. Erslan
Matthews vs. Magny
Nolan vs. Campbell
Tafa vs. Sutherland
The Prelims