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Middleweights

Jose Medina (11-5) vs. Dusko Todorovic (10-6)

Odds: Todorovic (-300); Medina (+250)

The bad news is that this might be the lowest-level matchup that could be made in the UFC middleweight division right now considering that Todorovic, who has dropped three straight and four of his last five, is a 3-to-1 favorite. The good news is that with two fighters extremely motivated not to lose in the most obvious pink slip derby you’re likely to see in the UFC this year, it should be a fun scrap.

To be blunt, the man over whom the reeling Todorovic is so heavily favored, Medina, hasn’t shown he belongs in the UFC. The 34-year-old Bolivian was signed by the promotion despite losing on Dana White's Contender Series. Since then, he has lost twice more and hasn’t been particularly competitive in any of the three fights.

Average-sized for the middleweight division and not much of an athlete, Medina does have power, and to his credit, he tries to leverage that power by coming forward and throwing punches. The problem is everything else, as he is there for whatever his opponent prefers to do: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov easily outwrestled him, Ateba Abega Gautier blew him up on the feet and Zachary Reese did a little of both.

What that means is that any middleweight with even one decent offensive skill has a pretty good chance of beating Medina, and Todorovic qualifies. The Serbian has been in the UFC for five years now, and while his 3-6 mark accurately reflects his struggles, he does have some things going for him.

“Thunder” is a big 185-pounder who presents as a kickboxer and has good power in his punches as well as kicks, but his lack of speed and movement have gotten him in trouble against almost all of the decent strikers he’s faced. While his takedown defense is poor, he has shown surprisingly good offensive wrestling, and when he gets opponents down, he has a heavy top game with solid ground-and-pound.

That means that Todorovic has several good avenues to victory on Saturday, while Medina has just the one: clip his foe with a big punch. That’s certainly possible, but far likelier is that Todorovic gives as good as he gets on the feet until he feels like taking Medina down, at which point things get ugly fast. The pick here is Todorovic by TKO on the ground, late in Round 1.



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