Preview: Noche UFC Prelims

Middleweights

Zachary Reese (9-2) vs. Sedriques Dumas (10-3)

Odds: Reese (-240); Dumas (+200)

Middleweights with some promising tools—and concerning flaws—meet in this prelim clash. The differences between Reese and Dumas outside the cage are thankfully stark (feel free to get back to me if Reese ever has a bout scratched because of parole or probation) but as fighters they have some broad similarities. Both are tall, rangy 185-pounders who do their best striking from outside, and are capable ground fighters only if they are the one initiating things.

Reese sits at 3-2 since graduating from the Contender Series and while all three of his wins are over bottom-tier UFC middleweights—including both halves of the Jose Medina-Dusko Todorovic fight that is inexplicably scheduled three or four slots later on the card—he has shown that he belongs here.

However, the path to victory against Reese has been laid out at this point. Cody Brundage and Azamat Bekoev both jumped on him early, hurt him with a single big technique or flurry of techniques, and put him away before he could recover or really even seemed to be aware he was in a fight. If he is allowed to get warm and get his reads at his own pace, he is actually a smart and disciplined fighter who has a knack for when to alternate distance striking, in-close work and offensive wrestling to his own best advantage.

Dumas is also a long-limbed striker who prefers to work from outside but has some dangerous short-range weapons when needed. He has a very nice arsenal of kicks which he throws to all levels with good dexterity and power. While he has developed sneaky and surprisingly effective offensive wrestling, his takedown defense remains very poor, and his defense from his back is not much better.

Reese should win this fight; while he may give up a slight edge on the feet to the faster, more dynamic “Reaper,” he is a much better ground fighter and importantly, he should know that and will probably fight accordingly. As a bettor I wouldn’t touch these odds with a 10-foot pole, since Reese can be blitzed and Dumas will have his chances to do so, but the pick is for the Texan to drop Dumas sometime after the midpoint of Round 2, then close things out with ground-and-pound.



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Hernandez vs. Ferreira
Medina vs. Todorovic
Puelles vs. Silva
Suarez vs. Lemos
Aguilar vs. Gurule
Reese vs. Dumas
Costa vs. Coria
Rendon vs. Pereira
Sezinando vs. Donchenko