Preview: Noche UFC Prelims

Men’s Flyweights

Jesus Santos Aguilar (11-3) vs. Luis Gurule (10-1)

Odds: Gurule (-220); Aguilar (+180)

Mexico’s Aguilar and Factory X representative Gurule meet here in a solid 125-pound scrap. Aguilar has been a fun addition to the UFC since joining out of the Contender Series three years ago. Undersized even for the smallest men’s division in the promotion, the 29-year-old has made up for it with a high workrate, gameness and a versatile, effective ground game.

A bit like a smaller, wilder Merab Dvalishvili, Aguilar at his best uses flurries of strikes to make his way into the pocket against bigger fighters, where he uses an array of shots and trips to bring things into his world. That is where the versatility of his wrestling and grappling come to the fore, because he is at home in the sort of frenetic scrambles that flyweight thrives on, but is also adept at working a more deliberate top game, limited only by the size deficit he sometimes gives up.

Gurule is tasked with bouncing back from his first career loss on Saturday. The 31-year-old “Grim” came to the UFC through last fall’s Contender Series as an intriguing prospect with wins over some solid names including Nick Piccininni and Jacob Silva. He was doing well in his April debut against Ode Osbourne, winning the fight right up to the point early in Round 2 when he threw one leg kick too many without proper a setup and was blown up by a huge counter left. It now falls to him to regain some of that undefeated prospect momentum.

Cautiously, Gurule still looks like the real deal to me. He came up through the regionals as a kinetic kickboxer with good power for the division, and despite the solid slate of opposition he faced, simply hadn’t run into anyone who could make him pay for a single defensive lapse in the way Osbourne did. The UFC flyweight division has plenty of fighters who could do the same in that situation, but my guess is that he will have learned something.

This fight hinges on whether Aguilar can get Gurule onto the mat or at least keep him tied up in clinches and scrambles enough to minimize the time his own chin spends on the gunnery range. For as long as they are on the feet, Gurule should get very much the better of things with his superior reach and power, and if he does happen to commit any defensive miscues like the naked low kick, Aguilar is not equipped to punish those sins in the same way as someone like Osbourne. The pick is for Gurule to get back in the win column after a fun, fast-paced prelim barnburner.



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Aguilar vs. Gurule
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