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“The Ultimate Fighter” Season 33 Welterweight Final

Rodrigo Sezinando (8-1) vs. Daniil Donchenko (11-2)

Odds: Donchenko (-240); Sezinando (+200)

Originally scheduled for UFC 319 last month, the “TUF 33” welterweight final was bumped to Noche UFC when Sezinando withdrew due to illness. While the Brazil vs. Ukraine opener adds little to the theme of the evening—to say nothing of what the all-Team Cormier dynamic might to for the commentary—it does at least feature two intriguing young welterweights.

Of the two, Sezinando feels a bit more like a finished product despite having fewer fights. That is not to say he is a polished product—his striking in particular is wild and raw—but if he can find his footing and stick around, he might translate into the kind of mid-card action fighter and bonus magnet that the UFC welterweight division always needs.

Sezinando is at his best on the ground, where he delivers hard strikes while advancing position and can take the back and cinch up a rear-naked choke in a hurry. He struggles, relatively speaking, when he cannot get the fight onto the mat in the place, time and position of his choosing. While his strikes have plenty of power, and he throws good volume, his big swings are prime for some of the most disciplined boxers at 170 to counter.

Donchenko may not be one of those disciplined boxers yet, but at just 24, he has plenty of time to become whatever he’s going to become. He is green as well, but his native tools are more impressive than Sezinando’s. Donchenko is a powerful, athletic welterweight whose striking is raw but carries undeniable power. He does not yet throw in combination as much as he should, but he is more defensively sound than a lot of fighters of comparable experience, and thus far he has done well simply by overwhelming his foes with more and harder shots.

Donchenko’s wrestling is more effective than technical at this point, but throughout his regional run as well as on “TUF,” it has usually been enough to let him determine when and if the action goes to the floor. Assuming he uses those chops to keep things standing here, the pick is for both men to have their moments on the feet, but for Donchenko to gradually pull away thanks to his better movement and power, en route to a third-round TKO win.



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Sezinando vs. Donchenko