Preview: Noche UFC Prelims

Men’s Flyweights

Alessandro Costa (14-4) vs. Alden Coria (10-3, 1 NC)

Odds: Costa (-450); Coria (+350)

It’s an interesting 11th hour matchup at 125 pounds, as Costa welcomes Coria to the UFC in place of Edgar Chairez. As a replacement for an entertaining Mexican scrapper, Texas native and former Fury FC champ Coria makes all kinds of sense.

Costa is 2-2 since joining the UFC three years ago, a number that does not accurately reflect his talent or skill so much as the quality of opposition he has faced, and perhaps the fact that at 29, he is still figuring out his game to some extent. A few months after winning on the Contender Series but not earning a UFC contract, “Nono” was thrown directly into the deep end, stepping up on short notice to face ranked contender Amir Albazi, and acquitted himself respectably by jumping all over Albazi early before being gradually overwhelmed.

At this point in his development, Costa is capable of doing spectacular things to just about anyone—even in his losses to Albazi and Steve Erceg, he had big moments—but struggles to win rounds if he doesn’t get those big moments. He is compact for the division, muscular and explosive, and on the feet, he has hurt everyone he has faced in the UFC.

Costa’s ratio of knockout to submission wins reflects the early days of his career when he pulled off highlight-reel techniques on grossly overmatched opposition. At this point in his career, he remains dangerous on the ground, but grappling will probably be a liability against most of the flyweights ranked above him. Erceg and Albazi both used the ground game as an opportunity to threaten Costa and, just as importantly, as a safety valve when they didn’t like what they were getting from him on the feet.

That dynamic may or may not hold against Coria. A longtime teammate of flyweight contender Joshua Van, and briefly his successor as Fury champ, Coria is not the second coming of his celebrated teammate. They are different in build and in physical attributes but do come from the same 4 oz. Fight Club mold as their mentor Daniel Pineda. Coria, like Van, is a good boxer who throws well in combination and works the body well.

Coria lacks Van’s explosive athleticism and power and the effective offensive wrestling Van has begun to display, but he does several things at a high level, and as someone who probably would have gotten a good look from the Contender Series within the next six months anyway, it’s good to see him here. However, this is a rough matchup for him, as evidenced by the big betting line. The pick is for Costa to have some early challenges navigating the reach and jab of Coria, but he should be the much more potent striker once he opens up. Costa by one-sided decision.



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Costa vs. Coria
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